What if we all have to pivot to video again?
If Gen Z and younger generations search on TikTok over Google - well that changes everything
I remember back in 2014 or so, when every VC-backed publisher and legacy media company was suddenly in the business of churning out video - mostly to feed social media platforms -and my editor shook his head.
Not everything needs to be video, he said. In fact, video is not the most efficient way to deliver most information. You don’t need to watch video to find out who won the Yankee game, or how Disney’s earnings went, or to get the recipe for baklava, when you can just read this information quickly - mostly likely after a very easy web search.
Soon, he and many other doubters were proven right. Publishers imploded, video teams were disbanded, Facebook changed its algo, and soon the phrase ‘pivot to video’ became a bad word in media nerd circles.
Of course people still watched video - but in the web publishing world, the pivot was a cynical, short-sighted push for empty view numbers and higher CPMs - not something consumers really wanted or needed. Much of the video produced in that era was about distracting, not serving.
My old boss was right. Or - was this pivot just way too early?
Fast forward to a few weeks ago, and this quote from a Google executive keeps making my head hurt:
According to TechCrunch, Senior Vice President Prabhakar Raghavan said that “younger users were now often turning to apps like Instagram and TikTok instead of Google Search or Maps for discovery purposes.”
“We keep learning, over and over again, that new internet users don’t have the expectations and the mindset that we have become accustomed to.” Raghavan said, adding, “the queries they ask are completely different.”
Well, that changes - everything.
The significance of that statement did not appear to be lost on TikTok:
If younger people search the web completely differently than the previous few generations, because their brains are simply wired differently - well, the ramifications are massive. If your company relies on search engine marketing, search engine optimization, Google traffic, selling billions of search ads, or - gulp- TEXT - you maybe be in serious trouble.
Do we all have to pivot back to video asap?
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A few caveats here:
While Google’s most recent earnings disappointed Wall Street, the company’s search advertising revenue is massive and still growing. No one at Google is sounding any alarms over query volume being way down anywhere I’ve seen.
Microsoft’s Bing is actually a revenue bright spot for the company. So people are clearly searching the web.
I still contend that video is far less efficient way of getting information quickly, like where is the nearest coffee shop, the best cardiologists in Philadelphia, what are the warning signs of ringworm, etc. I would never find myself looking this kind of stuff up on Instagram or TikTok.
But then again, I’m old.
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It’s hard to gauge just how much social media, and growing up with constant access to devices and algorithms, is completely rewiring people as they develop. The other day, Washington Post reporter Taylor Lorenz was tweeting about how she loves a certain podcast, but can only listen at high speeds…and that she’s frustrated that Netflix doesn’t allow for this.
I think Lorenz was kinda kidding/exaggerating…but maybe I want to believe that because this kind of media consumption is inconceivable to me.
I’m going to assume that Lorenz is way younger than me, but not 17 either. So if he habits represent how millennials are able to consume digital media - what is happening with Gen Z and younger? Is everything they do going to be at 2x speed?
Indeed, what is the TikTok-ization of our frontal lobes doing to our ability to process, understand, multitask, read?
And in business terms- what is all this going to do to the digital publishing and advertising?
Getting back to the Google executives remarks about search - it’s possible that the he was just flying off the cuff at the Fortune event. Except that Google executives don’t typically fly off the cuff. So let’s just imagine what happens when multiple generations of consumers become predisposed to getting information from video, and search for utility stuff via TikTok, IG, and others:
Search advertising was a $78 billion market in just the US last year. Could that seriously be vulnerable? TikTok is already testing search ads btw.
Search engines send people all over the open web. Is that going to stop?
What about publications that are specifically designed for search, like DotDash? Will they have to build out completely different service-oriented ‘publications’ for TikTok?
Or will this push people further toward favoring influencers over publications?
What about search ad buying agencies and search engine optimization firms? Will they be able to do what they do in TikTok and IG, which are far more algorithm-driven/presumably harder to game?
Do I have to pivot to video?
(As an aside, we’ve seen what TikTok is doing to video consumption overall - even pressuring TV companies. When does someone in TV look to recreate a TikTok style viewing experience on TV?)
Anyway, thanks for reading. Next week’s newsletter will probably just be me doing some kind of dance competition. I have to start learning at some point.
Lastly - if you haven’t already, please check out the podcast mini series on the future of TV ads I’m producing in partnership with OpenAP. The latest episode featured execs from NBCUniversal and Paramount talking about the future of measurement and currency at a time when everything is changing.
What I think is relevant in the Raghavan quote isn't necessarily the user behavior, it's the executive expectations--at each stage or cycle, user behavior changes in unanticipated ways.
Rarely is the user rationale and behavior the same as ease of information recall and retention. We give users too much and not enough credit.
TT avg daily session is still over 40 min; it makes sense to me that users will use whatever part of the product they can to do whatever they want--search, transact, consume, communicate, consume some more, etc.
I saw a video recently that interviewed many Gen Z-ers to ask what platforms they use for things like getting recipes, travel hacks, restaurant recs, connecting w/ friends etc., and none of them said Facebook, Snap, or Google. It was TikTok, IG, and Youtube. It wasn't just heaping praise on those three. There was a real disdain for Facebook & Google (search) and a meh attitude toward Snap. They see FB as the place for their Boomer grandparents (basically true). They don't trust Google SERPs because it's full of ads. When asked about Snap, the answer was something to the effect of, "Who?". Is Google unflappable? Can anyone envision a world without "Googling"? Remember 20 years ago, Palm was valued at $50B and Blockbuster was blockbusting. They were supposed to be rock solid businesses. We know how all that worked out.