The Race to Own TV Shopping is On
Could Walmart hold the keys?
A quick few notes - I’m working with the team at Fabric Media on a potential custom content program at Cannes this year. If interested, please reach out to Jason Damata jason@fabricmedia.net.
Had a really fun podcast conversation this week with Tubi’s head of advanced TV Melanie Brown. Check it out.
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Could Walmart hold the key to the future of TV advertising?
Ok, so that might be a bit extreme. But I’ve been thinking about just how much the TV ad industry is talking up shoppable TV - or at least trying to lay the groundwork for a future when we all regularly buy stuff from TV commercials - and billions in commerce dollars flood the medium.
For example:
The ecommerce behemoth that is Amazon is planning to introduce a series of shoppable ad units during its upfront next week, according to Variety
Disney and Walmart announced a shopping data partnership, per Adexchanger
NBCU is going to let people buy stuff through Instacart during the Olympics
Conde Nast, T-Mobile and Verizon all talked shoppable video during the NewFronts
These are just a few examples. The TV world clearly has Retail Media envy, and is dying to have access to those budget - and moreover be able to prove that it can drive immediate, highly trackable transactions just as well as RMNs.
Of course, people already happen to shop on ecommerce sites. TV at large is trying to engineer a massive behavioral and purpose shift - turning sitting on your couch and checking out time to shopping time.
I have plenty of doubts about whether this can or will ever happen. It’s very much not in people’s or the medium’s nature to pause Shogun and buy socks. That said, behaviors change. I don’t think I expected people to run out to buy drug store mascara, or read books, because of TikTok, but here we are.
The thing is, in my view, shoppable TV is unlikely to happen if the industry introduces the concept and capability in such a fragmented approach. If ultimately shoppable ads are only going to X people that both use Instacart and Peacock, or only really works well on Amazon Fire Devices during Amazon Prime shows - it’s doubtful we’ll get liftoff.
As many people have noted, taking away the friction is key. This is why, unlike with CTV advertising - where ad inventory trumps operating system, the OS may play a vital role in making T-shopping a thing. Let’s try and break down how this could happen:
The obvious contender: Amazon
Amazon has been talking about the ability to make it easy for consumers to ad items to their Amazon carts from ads for several years. Now, they seem poised to get aggressive now that Prime Video is ad-supported by default.
Amazon has a massive advantage give that so many people already use it to shop all the time. It should be fairly seamless (I think) to start rolling out ads when people are watching Prime shows that are directly linked to people’s Amazon accounts. Here’s what I don’t know - can this happen automatically? Do viewers have to enable some sort of permission to connect their Amazon.com shopping data to their Prime app? Will this work regardless of what TV people are using?
However, a few caveats. We don’t know quite yet whether Amazon’s share of streaming time - 2.8% per Nielsen - might shrink now that ads have been turned on. More crucially, Prime is just Prime. Ideally, if Amazon wanted to make T-Commerce ubiquitous, it would cut deals across the ecosystem. But realistically, are big streamers going to want to work with a ecommerce brand that is trying to compete for streaming ad dollars? That’s where Walmart comes in.
The one to watch - Walmart
Walmart has built a very strong ads business over the past few years. And it’s already struck T-Commerce deals, including a recent test with Roku. And soon, Walmart will have a key ingredient to go much bigger - Vizio.
If and when that deal closes, could Walmart bake in by default a TV shopping wallet into the Vizio operating system, which would make it simple and easy for people to buy stuff via TV ads?
Or course, to make this fly, Walmart would need more ad inventory than just what video ads Vizio sells via its FAST service. Would other networks and streamers allow Walmart to be their TV shopping wallet of choice for a nice cut? Analyst Brian Wieser has suggested that Walmart, Target and others might even take over ad sales for some TV ad inventory over time. Even crazier - could Walmart ever license its proposed Vizio wallet to other TV makers? This may come down to just how aggressive Walmart wants to get -and how willing others are to cede ground.
youTUbe dark horse
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The problem child - Netflix
Netflix, as you know, accounts for a whole lot of streaming time spent. It’s the first thing put on for many viewers. The company has just barely gotten going with advertising. It’s hard to imagine this UI-obsessed tech player wanting to clutter up its app with shopping ads any time soon.
The quiet contender - YouTube
I recently had execs from YouTube on my podcast (episode coming soon) and was struck by how much they are talking up shopping and interactive ads. YouTube has a lot going for it in that it’s command of streaming time spent is surging, it’s got a massive ad business, and tons of its content is shopping friendly (from travelogues to unboxing videos). Here’s the potential downside - fulfilment. YouTube does have lots of folks credit cards thanks to its various subscription businesses. But is there an easy way to turn that into mainstream shopping? Are you ready to shop via YouTube? Will any other companies want to partner with Google on this mission?
The ‘not totally crazy idea’ - TikTok
If you haven’t heard, TikTok Shop is taking off, so much so that it’s making other shopping platforms nervous. And unlike say Amazon, TikTok has mastered the art of ‘fun’ shopping - stuff you buy not because you need it, but because you want it.
Here’s the catch - while TikTok does have a CTV app, there is little evidence that people watch much TikTok on TV.
The wild card - Apple
Here’s where things could get interesting. Wouldn’t it be great if you could buy stuff on TV, regardless of who sells it and where you saw it? If say Apple, which already has a widely distributed digital payment product, wanted to get aggressive and look to bring that to TV across platforms, distributors and networks, it could theoretically unlock T-Commerce in a huge way. Of course, Apple has its own fledgling streaming product, and a small but growing TV ad business - which could get in the way. And to make Apple Pay work on all sorts of TV OSes and apps could be incredibly complicated and prohibitive. I don’t know. But it’s fascinating to think about.
What do you think?