YouTube Has Bombed Twice Making Original Shows. It Should Give It One More Try.
Timing is everything
A few weeks ago, as part of an excellent mega-feature in Variety highlighting YouTube’s 20th anniversary, the company talked about why it exited the original content business a few years ago.
“We weren’t good at picking content,” said CEO Neal Mohan.
But anyone who’s watched six seasons of Cobra Kai knows that’s not true.
The “Karate Kid-spinoff” recently wrapped up its sixth season, landing at number 4 on the Nielsen streaming chart, with 893 million minutes viewed.
It’s easy to forget that “Cobra Kai” premiered rather quietly on YouTube Red back in 2018. It didn’t break out culturally until it popped up on Netflix a few years later, after YouTube killed its Red subscription product and exited the original content business.
The lesson appeared clear - scripted shows didn’t make sense on YouTube, where creators and short-form ruled, while nothing beats the Netflix algorithm and/or home page for discovery and hit-making.
Except 2018 might as well be 50 years ago in streaming.
Today, people watch a billion hours of YouTube per day on smart TVs. Per Nielsen, YouTube accounts for nearly 12% of all TV viewing time in the US (not streaming time, but all TV time), about 3 percentage points more than Netflix.
And while YouTube’s TV audience is younger than, say, linear TV, viewership among 50+ viewers is surging, reported Business Insider earlier this week.
So imagine if “Cobra Kai” had debuted on YouTube, today - and YouTube ran it free (no paywall) with ad support. Think the show wouldn’t have found an audience? My bet is that it would be massive.
Sure, YouTube may not have been perfect in picking original shows (who is?) But it’s struggles in that department may have been more about timing than anything else.
Now, you can make a very fair counter-argument that “Cobra Kai” would always stand out on YouTube for the wrong reasons - it’s scripted, features slick production values, and really has nothing to do with creators. The show had very little in common with the other YouTube Originals from a few years back, which included stuff like “Scare PewDiePie” and “Rhett and Link's Buddy System.” Most of these shows were centered on YouTube-born talent -and they never seemed to work.
To be sure, it’s very easy to get lost in the vastness of YouTube, and perhaps originals that sort of feel like videos that YouTubers like PewDiePie and Rhett and Link already make weren’t going to move the needle. And Mohan is right in that these days, top YouTubers are increasingly making high production shows. So why does Google need to involved at all?
Well, for starters:
Advertisers would have loved to be part of a brand-safe show that broke out culturally like “Cobra Kai.” Projects like that could elevate the entire YouTube brand, which (unfairly) still carries a stigma among some brands and media buyers.
YouTube’s TV interface is far better set up to promote and even tip the scales toward long-form episodic content.
Not only is YouTube’s TV audience expanding demographically, so much of the TV ecosystem is up for grabs, and YouTube has an opportunity to get more aggressive and steal share.
In fact, a new report this week from Deloitte found that 56 percent of Gen Zs and 43 percent of millennials find social media content “more relevant than traditional TV shows and movies” and most prefer creators than to TV personalities or actors.” YouTube has this audience - and it should take more advantage of it.
The trick would be, how to leverage those creators, while also pushing into other genres while producing more high end ‘TV shows. Perhaps something like “Beast Games” is too rich for YouTube’s blood (I’m talking about one revenue stream here - not two). What about creator-centric sitcoms, for example? That sort of thing wouldn’t come cheap, but if Tubi can do it…
Another idea - while Netflix is trying to make topical talk shows work (again) with John Mulaney, wouldn’t an original talk show featuring a top comedian, or a born-on YouTube comic, fit the platform’s ethos quite nicely? Think about how big video podcasts have become.
Or, what about all the YouTube creators who are flocking to CTV to either distribute to, or launch FAST channels? Shouldn’t YouTube find a way to lean into this need, a programmed experience designed for consumers who want to just throw TV on (especially all these new ‘old’ viewers?) Again, this is something that many brands would dig.
Regardless, there should be a mechanism in place for YouTubers who want to take their content games to more ambitious levels - and that should be on YouTube. Yes, YouTube would likely need to spend more, and take more swings, than previous Originals eras.
I’m not saying this will be easy, but anyone who’s followed the Sekai Taikai knows that nothing that is worth doing is ever easy.