Trump or Harris - Does it Even Matter (For Digital Advertising)?

Plus, the inside story on Google's Privacy Sandbox debacle

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Between assassinations, debate meltdowns and nominees dropping out, digital advertising hasn’t exactly been the focus of the 2024 campaign. But someone is going to be elected president in a few months (maybe?) and have to deal targeting, privacy, alleged consumer surveillance, and all that stuff. Or not.

You could make an argument that in digital ad land, it really doesn’t matter if we get Trump or Harris. After all, it was a pair of British regulators that initially held up Google’s cookie depreciation, which is now essentially in users’ hands. Google’s decision a few weeks ago to give up on a cookie shutdown was not the result of anything the US government did or didn’t do.

Yes, Google is facing a court date with the Department of Justice this September, which appears to be an attempt to get the company to answer for past crimes. If anything the EU’s GDPR that has had the biggest impact on how digital advertising operates today, as it served as a model for many US state privacy laws.

Those state laws, which seem to have had little tangible impact, won’t be impacted by a Trump or Harris win. Yes, a Harris administration would have to make a decision on keeping things status quo with the FTC - a body that aspires to take on big tech, but often seems overmatched and perhaps misguided. (For example, the FTC did crack down on Google and iHeart media over deceptive ads for the Google Pixel phone ((thank goodness!!)) while seemingly doing nothing regarding the Privacy Sandbox mess, or Google changing how the entire search economy works with AI) But hey, I’m not a lawyer).

So you could make a case that whoever wins in 2024 won’t matter, since they’ll simply cede power to the Europeans, and the real ‘regulators’ - Google, Apple, Meta, etc. - who mostly dictate how the internet works.

However, I asked IAB Tech Lab CEO Anthony Katsur about this on my podcast this week, and he didn’t entirely agree - but had some really interesting thoughts.

If it’s Harris, “I think you'll see an emboldened FTC, I think is a likely outcome there,” he said. “The big question around the FTC though, is do they actually have the legal remit? Do they have the authority to actually enforce these kind of laws? And I think that's a debate in DC. That's not just me. I think that's a question that some folks in the Beltway.”

Again, given all that is going on, is making sure the FTC has more teeth a major priority for Harris?

Ok, so what if it’s Trump: “I don't think all the pressure's off,” Katsur said. Would Trump try to steer forward a national law? “I think the challenge with the federal privacy law, it's not that there haven't been attempts, there have been….what's been proposed needs additional work, but it hasn't been for lack of trying. I think a lot of it boils down to preemption.”

So its’ the states, right? “I think California at this point is rivaling Europe in terms of how advanced their privacy laws are,” said Katsur. And you've also got folks like [ex FTC official Ashkan Soltani [who is leading the CCPA]. He is a smart dude, and he knows this ecosystem. So you've got folks like that that are leading the charge for the states.”

We’ll see. In the meantime, Katsur and I spend a lot of time going through the IAB Tech Lab’s work on Google’s Privacy Sandbox, and the now infamous report the agency issued. I think you’ll find it illuminating

One big question I had for Katsur is - how this could happen, and in particular, where was Google’s leadership on this one? Why isn’t this mess falling on CEO Sundar Pichai, CFO Ruth Porat or others?

“The Chrome engineering team is a really, really sharp group of engineers,” said Katsure. “They are really smart. They know know browsing technology and core internet protocols, HTTP, TCP, IP, et cetera. Butnthey don't have a digital advertising background.”

“It's a good question,” he added. “I've never really asked that question. I mean, I can only speculate that, I can only speculate like the Chrome team was given a mission of, ‘we need a more private internet via the Chrome browser, but we also have to satisfy the fact that the internet is largely ad-supported.’

“If we look at Privacy Sandbox, it's a microcosm of the wider industry. This industry is trying to thread the needle between advertising utility and publisher monetization to maintain an open, web and consumer privacy.”

That sounds hard, and doesn’t sound like a winning issue for either candidate to take on.

Under the Influential

Smart move by Publicis Group last week in snatching up the creator-focused agency/analytics firm Influential for $500 million (The CEO was on my show late last year - you do the math).

Agencies and brands need help on this front, and it’s not easy to build the muscle internally. As Josh Campo, CEO of Razorfish told me in my latest video interview with my friends at VuePlanner, “many brands today understand the importance of creator followings and the creator economy, especially with Gen Z and Gen Alpha.”

“However, there's a gap between understanding and action. Brands need to act authentically, honor their brand, and move quickly enough to stay relevant. Many organizations are not set up for this fast-paced, creator-centric world and are still built for a TV-centric era.”