The thing that no one in TV likes to talk about
Programmers vs. algorithms
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The past few years have pitted the tech giants (Netflix, Amazon, YouTube) against the traditional media giants in the so-called Streaming Wars - with the future of entertainment seemingly on the line.
But what if they’re just a prelude to a coming, much higher stakes battle which could determine how Americans primarily entertain, inform and distract themselves- and how marketers tell their stories?
Call it the Device Wars. Or CTV vs. Social TV. Or The Programmer vs. The Algorithm. Its outcome could reshape television - or send it reeling.
What do I mean? Well, one of the quiet conversations I had with many folks at Cannes is what happens when these two charts converge, or even flip?
Right now, the gap between TV and social video is sizable. However, what does it look like with Gen Z? What will it look like for Gen Alpha?
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One of the things that nobody in TV likes to think much about is Gen Z’s preference for their phones (or lack of reverence for big screens) and their love of short form content that just comes their way. It’s worth asking the scary question as to whether - even amidst the growth of streaming - that TV - particularly programmed, scripted, produced TV - won’t always play the central role it has for generations.
(We are putting aside video games for the sake of this converation)
Creators, ironically, could be the wildcard here. There is no lack of evidence that younger generations not only love watching creator content, but often prefer it to Hollywood fair. It’s clear the industry is recognizing and embracing this trend, as evidenced by the uber-presence of creators at Cannes this year. .
“A few years ago – creators were influencers,” said Kevin Blazaitis, President, Creo at Omnicom Media Group. “Now they are media vehicles …delivering audiences brands cannot normally get in front of.”
While there are huge creators on all platforms, YouTube remains ground zero, especially since YouTube shares revenue with talent.
And YouTube is increasingly a TV vehicle. It makes up 10% of TV viewing. So ironically, YouTube creators could draw and keep younger viewers glued to TVs.
Again though, are we sure TV screens are where the future lies?
Among younger consumers, TikTok is massive, and other short form platforms like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts are sucking up enormous amounts of time.
Does advertising have the same impact in these endless scroll environments? I’ve heard very different opinions on this.
Here’s how Diana Haussling, Chief Marketing Officer, NAColgate Palmolive, described what many brands are looking for from video:
“How can you be relevant in culture, or being next to something elevates or shifts how consumers think? We want to be in an environment that builds that emotion connection?”
Can an algorithmic feed do that?
At the same time, it’s a fair question to ask about whether short-form-first, mobile-dominant media consumption will just be a product of youth, or if this kind of behavior that isjust wired into Gen Z’s brains, just as being a couch potato was for boomers and Gen X.
Here’s how Ziad Ahmed, head of next gen at UTA, put it: "Social language is the first language that we speak,” he said at a Cannes event at Medialink’s Beach setup. “Whether I like it or not, my thoughts are constructed in TikTok audios.”
This will have profound impacts on the way that brands develop media strategies- much bigger than ongoing the shift to CTV.
“Consumers are connecting in a much different way,” said Ajay Sharma Vice President, eCommerce & OmniChannel, North America at Bayer, during a Cannes panel hosted by Omnicom. “Our infrastructure is wired for brick and mortar. Fundamentally and internally it’s quite a big change.
“We’ve had to rewire our processes to zoom in on social and TikTok. We’ve had to rewire how we budget to actually be relevant to type of audiences.”
That won’t be easy for most brands to do - or to swallow.
To be sure, there is real backlash against American’s overall phone usage, and younger generations spending so much time on social media. Even the surgeon general is worried. Perhaps we see the wellness-obsessed Gen Z electing to put down their phones at some point.
Or, perhaps they’ll just keep on scrolling, and never look up.
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In the meantime, even as you contemplate TV’s existential threat, please check out my latest podcast episode — an interview with Uber’s Meg Ramm.