Media and Advertising in Trump's America: The Sequel
Plus, why Publishers May Have to Band Together in the Face of AI
Who’s going to win tonight? I don’t know!
Who does the advertising and media world want to win? While a large number of executives are outwardly pro-Harris, “business doesn't like to say it, I think business favors Trump,” said Sir Martin Sorrell on a recent episode of Next in Media. “Because he represents low tax, low regulation. And I think from the business community, that is a positive.”
Positive is one way to frame a second Trump presidency! To be sure, the ad business has done pretty well under Biden, despite lots of turmoil.
If Harris wins, my guess is that things are mostly status quo in this industry, although we’re likely to have a new FTC commissioner, per The Monopoly Report.
So what happens in media and advertising if Trump wins tonight, or this week? Here are some guesses:
Traditional Media Malaise?
Under the Biden administration, traditional media has been in sort of a holding pattern, even as many companies have been looking to shed debt and seemingly set themselves up for big mergers. So, you might think under Trump we’d finally see some movement - maybe even mega-deals - like say WarnerDiscovery and NBCUniversal finally getting together - or something along those lines. However, the thing is, Trump hates the news business and has threatened to revoke licenses at major networks. Does he really want to help the owners of MSNBC out, for example? Plus, Paramount already sold, so it’s likely not going anywhere, and the Murdochs aren’t touching Fox. Comcast is already exploring spinning off its cable assets, not seeking to buy stuff. So my guess is, if anything, we’ll see streaming joint ventures, but no media saviors.
Hispanics Take Center Stage?
Given that a)Hispanic voters seem to have been misunderstood for years, and b) Trump is talking about mass detentions and deportations, the timing seems right for someone needs to launch a new Hispanic-aimed media company, possibly a news org that caters to younger generations.
Google is Stuck?
The DOJ is too far along with Google, right? Nothing changes with Trump, right?
Return of Valley Power
Under Trump, Big Tech - like Russia - will be able to do whatever the hell it wants. For starters, there will likely be less fervor among Republicans to go after what they see as bias in social media (since Trump will have won), and therefore, it will be open season for deals in Silicon Valley. Zuckerberg has been kissing up to Trump, while Bezos backed out of endorsing Harris. Meanwhile, Elon Musk may even play a role in the new government. Advertisers will surely never come back to Twitter (but that was probably already true) and who knows, maybe he recommends gutting regulatory bodies to Trump.
Do the antitrust cases against Meta and Amazon lose steam?
Who knows, you might see the return of mega acquisitions (Google buys Roku? Meta buys Roblox? Amazon buys Instacart?)
Advertising Free For All?
My guess is, after the past few years of championing restraint, ad tech will push the envelope again, and the drive for privacy will be dialed down. I mean, who’s going to be paying attention? The states, who thus far have done almost nothing?
What do you think?
Publishers May Need to Band Together in the face of AI
If you like to hear the clash between eternal optimism and deep pessimism, I highly recommend that you check out my latest podcast with Adam Singolda, CEO of Taboola. Singolda even got me to gain an ounce of hope about the open web, which right now feels like it’s in serious trouble.
That’s not to say that Singolda doesn’t think that web publishers have some serious challenges.
Regarding AI: “At Taboola we work with 9,000 publishers and 15 to 20,000 advertisers. I constantly hear about ‘what's going to happen to Gemini?’ ‘Will traffic go away?’ I get this question all the time. I get this question all the time about transparency and control. How do we know, you know, how is our money being spent and how will that change over time? Can we rely on that? Can we hire more employees? Because we need to know whether line of revenue is consistent or not. I hear that all the time.”
Singolda sees two potential solutions:
Publishers may need to band together and try to figure out how to tap into the power of AI to drive better engagement, a la TikTok
“If you look at publishers, big or small, how much of their business overall is optimized using AI? Very little,” he said.
“Are we really personalizing the experience for consumers like TikTok does? Are we really offering you lifetime value journey so that sometimes you see commerce, sometimes you see video, sometimes we'll offer you an email subscription. We're so far away from that.”
Publishers may need the help of benevolent tech companies - like maybe Apple (a Taboola partner) - to champion the power of news, and drive distribution.
“I think in the world of social networks and TikToks and all of those, news news plays such an important role for humanity. I we never want our children to discover things that matter like science or healthcare. or technology or news to be discovered by user-generated content environments when there's no policy, no editorial. God help us all. Right. So, and I think you're seeing, you're seeing iconic platforms agree, right? You're looking at companies like,Apple, Samsung and other great iconic brands who surface news to consumers. Why do they do that? Because they think it matters. It matters to consumers. It matters to our future. “
See, the future is going to be great - no matter who wins, right?