Yes, There is a Metaverse. Epic Games Already Built It
That doesn't mean Microsoft's play for Activision/Blizzard can't be a game changer
I write this post as my children have commenced screaming. It’s Friday afternoon, it’s 20 degrees out, and the homework is done.
It’s time to go on Fortnite.
It’s where all their friends will be, wearing headsets, mic-ed up, ready to go hoping to get in as many headshots as possible while avoiding the storm. Meanwhile that if they’re lucky enough, they’ll be able to unlock the latest ‘skins’ so they can make their Fortnite character look like Spider-man, or Boba Fett, or LeBron, or Johnny Lawrence, or whichever digital approximation is representing the latest big movie, show, or pop culture event.
The really lucky ones will have V-Bucks- Fortnite currency and pretty much thee birthday gift of the moment - ready to burn, which could mean even better skins, or hard-to-find digital assault rifles.
The screaming - ‘shoot him!,’ “Stop killing me!,” is such that it’s one of the main reasons my wife and I did over are basement. To make it go as far away as possible.
I’m writing this in light of the news this week that Microsoft had reached an agreement to purchase Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion.
I immediately thought that in light of all the the theoretical metaverse declarations and predictions, this could be a significant move towards a real one. I tweeted as such.
Then all the journalists who really know gaming quickly pumped out stories about how this move is really just about Microsoft buying up more gaming IP - like “Call of Duty,” as it tries to make its cloud gaming platform a thing.
And then I felt dumb. That’s not unusual for me.
Still, I don’t see why this couldn’t lead to Microsoft making a serious play to build whatever a metaverse is via the Xbox and its growing pile of massive games. I know people really love “World of Warcraft.” I realize millions are addicted to “Call of Duty.” You forget that Microsoft already owns Minecraft.
Meanwhile, I understand Xbox has a large subscriber base of its own, which includes elements of shopping and socialization.
So it seems there could be something there to stitch together.
But I can only speak to Fortnite directly. And if there’s a metaverse, or gonna be one, it has to look something like this.
If you don’t have kids or aren’t a gamer, I understand how it might be tough to wrap your head around this game’s hold on a generation. I’m hardly the first one to articulate that Fortnite is where kids hang out - it’s the mall, the basement, the rec room, etc.
This dynamic has only become more cemented during the pandemic.
Today, outside of TikTok, Fortnite is simply the most direct and powerful path to communicate with kids and teens. My sons know about major sporting and movie premieres thanks to Fortnite (not because they heard about them on TV). Not only do my sons gather for Fortnite concerts (they were among the millions last summer who dropped everything to watch a virtual Ariana Grande perform), but they develop their musical tastes while the game. And yes, they try also kill each other.
I’m not discounting what Facebook is building via Oculus, which has gotten rave reviews and undoubtedly broke out as a Christmas gift this past year. If the device’s immersion level and entertainment value remain as high as promised, it’s quite possible we’ll all be hanging out in Meta’s world someday.
However, if the supposed metaverse future is about creating alternative personalities, and having avatar friends and consuming entertainment collectively, Fortnite is there. Right now, not someday.
If anything, I wonder if Epic Games should have purchased Activision Blizzard, because I’m curious what happens when Fortnite’s core ages out (if they ever do). ‘Call of Duty’ could have been a way to age up as gamers do. But alas, that kind of acquisition doesn’t even seem to interest Epic Games.
I don’t pretend to know Epic’s full ambitions for Fortnite. It could all prove to be a massive (years long) fad. It may never progress being ‘play’ and not take on the full web3 qualities of this metaverse ideal that may never really exist. I’m pretty certain Epic doesn’t plan to decentralize ownership of the game at any point. Someone is going to want to dominate the metaverse, not just enable it.
Which brings me back to Microsoft. I’m still not certain why gamers - who have spent two years obsessing over how to get their hands PlayStation 5, are suddenly going to switch to cloud gaming (it’s like console gaming, but buggy and with worse games). At least in Microsoft’s case, it has games for its subscription service, unlike Netflix’s phantom product.
Yet beyond disrupting the video game business model, is it that far fetched that with Activision Blizzard in tow, Microsoft could aim build some kind of virtual playground via the Xbox, a device that is all about escapist, web-based activities and communications? If anything, Xbox All Access could serve as a means of unifying a person’s digital identity, through a simple log-in or a universal avatar. That would solve a real metaversey pain point (ask me how many Fortnite accounts my family has and how hard it can be to keep track of log-ins on various devices). What if you could be you Halo guy or Call of Duty person - everywhere?
That’s a really complicated mission I realized. In the meantime, it will be fascinating to see what Microsoft prioritizes ones the deal closes, and how the rest of the market responds (your move Google?)
In the meantime, Epic Games promises to keep building, giving kids more reasons to scream.
As a former Microsoft exec who worked across media and gaming, the answer is yes, both and then some... Yes, Microsoft's proposed acquisition on Activision would given Microsoft strong ARR from Activision's AAA titles like Call of Duty. The lifetime value associated to tentpole gaming titles dwarfs movies-- by a magnitude and Microsoft loves ARR. (Both) Put V-Bucks and the revenue associated to enhancing the in-game experience into the same ARR bucket. Fortnite, World of Warcraft and others offer a constant albeit somewhat less predictable revenue stream-- truly a gift that keeps on giving, especially when run by a world-class organization like Microsoft. Finally (...and then some), Microsoft has and will continue to learn from and extend the learnings from these augmented and virtual environments into commercial enterprise applications. AR application for skilled workers (think enhanced robotics) is in its infancy but by the time your sons enter the workforce it will likely be the norm. The big loser, if there is a loser, is Facebook... or whatever headfake they call themselves today. Like all Facebook attempts at hardware, Oculus is DOA, Zuck's vision is copycat, and despite billions in R&D to invest, Facebook has lost the hearts and minds of developers due to their greed and gross incompetence. Continue to fix-up that basement, there's lots more coming.