Here are Some Crazy 2025 Media and Ad Predictions
Plus, Epsilon's MacPherson on CTV's quest for the right ID
I was going to do a top 10 media and advertising predictions for 2025, and settled on three very specific ones. Please delete after reading, so I never have to answer for this.
By the way, thanks for reading this year. Don’t be afraid to weigh in on what you want more or less of. And reach out if you want to sponsor the newsletter or podcast.
And Happy Holidays!
1)Cable Ad Sales Offshoring
People often throw around the phrase ‘the death of linear TV,’ but if you look at the data, it’s really been the death of basic cable. As recently as June of 2021, cable accounted for 40% of total TV viewership, per Nielsen. Now it’s 25% - a stunning fall. So it makes sense that Comcast is spinning out it cable networks in a new company, which may start to compile others networks from the likes of Warner Discovery and Paramount.
At what point do these media giants start to say, ‘you know, managing ad sales for these fading linear cable networks has a very limited upside. Maybe we hand it over to someone else.’
For instance, for years Google has tried to get in on selling TV for the big media companies via various efforts aimed at clearing ‘remnant’ ads. Maybe they revisit this idea?
Or maybe an Amazon could help make the Comcasts and Warners more money than they can do on their own? Or what about a Walmart (which now owns Vizio, and has lots of great data) or Target? If there were ever a time to experiment with this sort of thing, it’s now, when these media cos seemingly have little to lose and much bigger priorities to focus on. To be sure, selling and placing ads in linear TV networks isn’t nearly as technically simple as it is in streaming - which may make it less attractive to tech companies. But in 2025, I could see at least a conversation happening…
Roku Target (ing)
I’ve written for years that one way for Google to get bigger into TV ads sales is to snatch up Roku, yet the regulatory environment hasn’t been great for tech companies for a while. And while a Trump administration may be more friendly to M&A, it may not be to Big Tech - not to mention that Google appears on the verge of being broken up. Yet Roku makes for a great target- since it has CTV inventory, ad tech, great data, and a much valued TV operating system. Maybe, as Business Insider suggested, Target looks to match Walmart’s Vizio move and grabs up Roku…or as other have floated, The Trade Desk Jumps in. Or, let’s get crazy here - what about Meta, which essentially has zero CTV presence, but could certainly make hay with its rich consumer data. Or a TV manufacturer like Samsung, which sees an opening to take its ad business to another level?
Instanet?
We’ve been talking potential consolidation in retail media for a while. It looked as though the Albertsons/Kroger merger might indirectly kick things off. Alas, that deal’s off the table. I wonder if both companies will maintain their interest and commitment to being in the ad sales business. Here’s an unoriginal idea - maybe we need a RMN roll up. But instead of having that prospect being driven by an ad tech company such as Criteo or the Trade Desk, what if one of the big non-Amazon player took over ad operations for a smaller fish (for example, how long does CVS or 7-11 want in on this game?) While this roller-upper could be a Walmart or Target, my vote is for Instacart, which already works with hundreds of independent grocers, and is more neutral/complimentary to the Krogers of the world than say a brick and mortar giant. Retailers could hand over their inventory and data to Instacart, which is at its heart an ad tech company, and theoretically make easier bank. The bigger these partners get together, the faster they could compete on share and price with the market leaders. Crazy idea?
Meanwhile, Does TV’s Have an IP Problem?
This interview is part of a multi-part series with my sponsor Epsilon. Today I’m talking with Gillian MacPherson Vice President, Product and Consumer Insights, about what the connected TV industry can learn from the web as it undergoes an identity overhaul which promises to reshape how brands target consumers.
Next in Media: We talk a lot of in this industry about signal loss on the open web. How is CTV doing in terms of signal for identity and targeting purposes?
MacPherson: It's a bit of a mixed bag. I would say on the positive side, you have a lot of authentication through emails for subscription services. So that's a good thing. On the bad side, I think there's a lot of IP address usage, which I would say is more on the weaker side and I think is where there's room to improve.
Next in Media: Overall, how is CTV doing with targeting? There’s an assumption that it’ll work like digital, but how often are brands really bringing data to the table for advanced TV targeting versus the traditional approach?
MacPherson: I'd say we’re still in the early stages. Some brands are using first-party data or our data for more advanced targeting, especially with addressable TV, though CTV has evolved. We’re seeing more inventory than people want to buy, so brands should be working with agencies and partners to layer in targeting to improve accuracy and ROI.
Next in Media: Getting back to your earlier point, there’s hope for a universal identifier in CTV, but as you mentioned IP addresses are seen as shaky. Can you talk about these issues?
MacPherson: I don’t think a universal identifier is necessary, but if everyone required consumers to log in with an email address, that would solve a lot of problems. The challenge is balancing accuracy and scale. Some FAST channels already ask users to log in in exchange for free TV, and that’s a good value exchange. The concern is whether this would reduce scale, especially if IP addresses are inflating numbers.
Next in Media: Yeah, asking for an email address would improve targeting. The big FAST players have had significant growth, so they may not want to introduce any barriers yet.
MacPherson: Consumers are willing to give their email for something in return, like free TV. I think they’d be okay with it if it improves content relevance and targeting. The key is being transparent with the value exchange.
Next in Media: Finally, there’s concern regulators might crack down on IP addresses. If that happens, do you have an alternative?
MacPherson: I’m not too concerned about IP addresses. Our data is built on real people—name and address. If IP addresses go away, it might impact reach and scale, but it could also improve targeting accuracy by reaching the right person. It would be a benefit in the long run.
Oh, and check out this week’s podcast, with Epsilon’s Chief Product Officer Joe Doran: