For the first time, the NewFronts should make TV nervous
The industry excitement right now lies in connected TV advertising, which is primarily in the control of tech companies
A few news stories stuck out to me this past week or so:
Roku and Google fighting how and where YouTube TV shows up on Roku devices and in searches (oh the irony)
ViacomCBS networks being added to Hulu’s live TV service - a whole four years after it launched
The first one was eye-opening given how big the stakes are, and the fact that any company could actually throw its weight around against Google.
The second one stood out in the sense that no one seemed to notice or care about this. When there is no outcry - when customers really don’t seem to want their MTV or register it’s missing -well, that’s a great sign for the traditional TV business.
Of course, you could make a very good argument that right now, ViacomCBS is and should be focused on Paramount+ But in the near term, this disparity in attention seems awfully telling when it comes to how much the power and buzz in the video ad industry has shifted.
This is happening amidst the annual sales extravaganza that is Upfront and NewFront season. I’ve been covering or watching the NewFronts from the beginning - and while I’ve always been fond of the event, they’ve always had a whiff of the kids playing dress up before the adults go out to the real party.
But this year feels really different - there’s blood in the water, and the digital guys seem to know it.
We don’t have to rehash what’s happening with linear TV ratings. It’s the CTV story that has brands salivating (it’s just like TV! but it’s digital! You can reach those Netflix people, sort of). And the NewFront players have a better story here than the actual TV companies. Case in point, Roku’s opening presentation where they came out swinging.
Roku’s “streaming-first audience is unreachable on linear TV,” said Julian Mintz, Roku’s national brand sales lead, per Deadline.
Similarly, Amazon - owners of the Roku-competitor FireTV- touted reaching 120 million viewers each month via ad-supported streaming
Yes, this is a messy number, as it includes Twitch and IMDB TV and it’s global - yet it’s still compelling. I’m curious as to why Amazon doesn’t talk up its CTV app inventory, which would seem to be comparable to Roku.
In either case, these companies can promise brands TV-viewers watching TV ads on TV screens - across numerous networks and content apps - in a way that the individual TV owners can’t. Seems like an ideal way to ask for TV ad money.
Similarly, YouTube is talking up its fast-growing CTV audience - and the Google-owned company, despite its fight scuffle with Roku,- now boasts of 120 million viewers just on big screens. If anyone’s been able to pry away TV ad dollars over the years, it’s these guys.
And now, what is TV offering to counter this momentum? Not a lot of exciting content outside of sports, unless you are really charged up for NCIS: Hawaii. In terms of battling digital, the TV business is focused on umpteen different ways to buy slices of the addressable market, overly complicated device graphs and joint ventures and seemingly unique ways of identifying people, along with dozens of walled gardens that aren’t that few are actually clamoring to climb.
The digital video sector certainly has its challenges - the string of TV manufactures hosting NewFronts is reminiscent of half a dozen NewFronts being hosted by MCNs a few years back (mostly by companies that no longer exist). That space screams for a rollup - why doesn’t Google or Amazon or even Roku start writing huge checks to lock up ad space within Samsung and LG and Vizio TVs and start cornering this market?
I wouldn’t underestimate the traditional TV guys just yet. But they surely have a tougher story to tell this year. Consider that Snap (!) just rolled out the most impressive slate of digital originals seen in years. Their show featuring Will Smith do charitable acts reached 43 million people last year, said during its NewFront the company said 400 million people watch their originals overall last year. Does that short-form-driven number compare to reach millions of people who watch TV at the exact same time for two or three hours straight? Of course not - it’s apples, oranges and tacos. Still, 400 million is still a fuck-ton of people, and unlike linear TV, it’s growing and the audience isn’t in the AARP.
Consider that according to Snap, 95 million people watched ViacomCBS content on its app last year. Maybe that’s the best way TV can fight back - but helping TV money shift to digital, as long as they get a nice cut.
Otherwise, the sharks are circling. Ask Blake how it feels.
