21 Questions for the Second Half of 2023

From Google's fate, to AI reality, to potential media mergers and streaming shakeups

A few things before I start:

• I had an awesome experience putting together a robust crop of programming at Cannes with the folks at The Rebooting and our partners at Kerv. If you missed any of it, Brian Morrissey has been putting out several sessions from the event as podcasts, including this great one featuring Semafor’s Ben Smith and Puck’s Liz Gough.

• I’m looking for a sponsor for my podcast, which I produce and distribute in partnership with Beet.tv. We’ve got a new round of shows kicking off in a few weeks. If you’re interested, please reach out to andy@beet.tv or me.

Ok, so I just got back from a family vacation, right after Cannes. So instead of a deeply reported newsletter, this week I elected to go with 21 Big Media/Ad Questions for the Second Half of 2023. Sharp timely analysis, or a cheap gimmick when you’re short on ideas. You decide:

1. Can TikTok actually make social shopping in the US, and make Amazon sweat?

   1. Semafor reported that TikTok is all in on e-Commerce. But Americans have generally resisted an everything app.

2. Is anything actually going to happen to Google?

   1. The DOJ is after them. The EU wants to break them up. Attorney generals have it in for them. Now this embarrassing WSJ story. Yet nothing ever seems to stymie the search giant.

3. Did Facebook fix its ad problem?

   1. The company is said to be rearchitecting its entire attribution model. Recent earnings reports seem to indicate something’s working.

4. Are the effects of Apple’s mobile ad ID crackdown over?

   1. Is the worst over?

5. Is California about to make a bunch of big statements by going after ad tech companies?

6. Could Comcast and Disney make a Hulu deal sooner than next year’s deadline?

7. Is there any way that Disney doesn’t hang onto Hulu?

   1. Ripping the ad tech guts out of Hulu and Disney+ would seem to be extremely costly and disruptive

8. Is anyone in advertising or media going to do anything cool or revolutionary with AI other than quizzes?

   1. From what I can tell, AI’s impact today seems largely theoretical

9. Can anyone really make shopping on TV happen?

10. Can TikTok push into the TV money ad space like YouTube has?

11. Are real regular people really going to move away from Google search for Bing or Bard or something else?

12. Are regulators in the US going to scrutinize the growth of retail media?

    1. Is being targeted across the web by Target what you signed up for when you ordered socks?

13. Is WarnerDiscovery out of the debt-driven woods?

14. Will NBCU stick with Peacock?

15. Are Warner and NBCU simply going to merge?

16. Is anyone really going to dethrone Nielsen in TV?

17. Is Netflix’s ad supported business going to scale up enough to make brands happy?

    1. What about Disney+’s ad business?

18. Could an NBA streaming deal happens sooner rather than later?

    1. I have no intel on this, but could a streaming giant jump the gun and leak an outrageous offer before the negotiating window even opens next year?

19. Is eSports on the verge of a collapse, in terms of being a viable media property/ad vehicle?

20. Are any of these cookie replacement tactics going to matter in a year?

21. Can Linda Yacarrino make brands forget the fact that Elon ‘Ozempic’ Musk made homophobic intimations about Paul Pelosi and seemed to spread information about a Texas mass shooter?