2025 Could Be the Year of Reels - That is, If They Don't Zuck it Up
Plus, what Happens When Your Media Company Was Built on TikTok?
Imagine that:
You seem to have cracked the code on making content that both resonates with members of mobile/social-first Gen Z,
and appeals to the mysterious algorithm on the world’s hottest entertainment app.
You’ve also managed to perform so well that you’re getting calls about sponsorship deals from the likes of Adidas and Expedia and Shopify, and you’re making real money.
And because of a bizarre confluence of national security concerns and public panic, the US Supreme Court may take it all away. Or maybe Trump saves it?!
That’s where the nearly five-year-old New York based entertainment firm Fallen Media finds itself. The company is a short-form -specific studio that was essentially built to create shows on TikTok - and TikTok could be gone tomorrow.
I had co-founder and CEO Sol Betesh on my Next in Creator podcast this week to talk about this, along with his take on whether original series and social video mesh, where TikTok’s audience might go, and what brands still need to learn about.
Fallen Media’s content will likely be familiar to some of my younger readers. Among the company’s breakouts are the man on the street interview show What’s Poppin? With Davis! and the NYC set Street Hearts.
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Betesh says he’s not freaking out. While Fallen Media was born on TikTok, the company’s shows generate close to a billion views a year across multiple platforms, thanks to nearly 10 million followers, he said.
“TikTok invented the short form, swipeable format as an entertainment format,” he said. “They did invent that. But you have Instagram Reels now. You've got YouTube Shorts. We have a really strong audience on specifically on Instagram Reels. And so listen, I'd love for [TikTok] to stay. I'd love for it for some deal to get done where, you know, an American company can come in and buy a majority…Obviously. I think that for us, we're focused on making great content and whatever platforms that those live on, we're a studio. So wherever we can put our stuff, where it gets the views, we're in.”
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Betesh believes that most of the TikTok audience, along with advertisers, will head over to Reels (Others say Meta and Google should benefit; Madison and Wall says Snap might also enjoy a boost).
It’s hard to know exactly what will happen. It makes sense to me that Instagram is well set up for this, since it has become so much about algorithm-driven scrolling, versus YouTube, which is attempting to nail both short form and lean back TV viewing at the same time.
“Instagram Reels, I think is gonna get a lion's share of that money, that brand money if TikTok goes away,” said Betesh. “I think YouTube Shorts make a little bit of it. YouTube Shorts as a product, I think is still maturing, I wanna say. And then that's it. There really isn't another platform right now.”
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In fact, just before the holidays, eMarketer put out a forecast estimating that Instagram will account for more than half of Meta’s US ad revenue this year - which would represent a staggering growth number, considering the money machine Facebook has been for decades.
The questions I’d have as to whether Reels can and will capture this would be opportunity are twofold:
Can Meta get past its spotty track record when it comes to supporting and nurturing video destinations (Facebook Watch? IGTV??) and creators?
Will the newly Trumpy, Alpha Male, Still Clearly a Tool Zuckerberg, hinder Reels growth in any way?
As for the latter question, while there have been some public breakups with Meta, my guess is the average Reels user won’t care about Maga Meta, unless they are being harassed (which sadly will likely increase) or have friends who feel unsafe on its apps.
“Reels has become really effective because of AI,” said Michael Nathanson, Analyst, MoffettNathanson, on Peter Kafka’s Channels podcast this week. “All of a sudden you’re getting surfaced content that you never knew about. And even with the whole decision last week about content moderation coming down, I almost think in a world of AI-driven Reels, it doesn’t matter. Because if I don’t want to see pro Trump videos or Pro Biden videos, I’m going to be fed whatever I like.”
Will brands care? It depends, said Medialink Managing Director and partner at UTA Mark Wagman on my podcast earlier this week:
“I think brands are tired, frankly, of having this conversation and debate,” he said. “On one side of the coin, you've got marketers who feel like, especially in senior roles, it's their job to put their brand in environments that stand up for their brand and what they stand for…And then you certainly got the other school of thought of my job as the chief marketing officer is to drive shareholder value. And if those platforms provide shareholder value for me and drive sales and drive conversions, then who am I to be the guy or gal to say, no, I'm not going to let this happen?”
In other words, many brands will be ruthlessly practical, just like Zuck.
In the meantime, it will be interesting to see where short-form series find a home. Betesh said that despite some lingering perception that the creator mediaverse is characterized by randomness, Gen Z likes formulas and predictability just like everybody else.
“In entertainment, you wanna push the envelope always, but there's a level of consistency in entertainment in general that you need to stick to,” he said. “And so I do think that the internet, well, specifically YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, all of these platforms are real entertainment platforms. And that comes with consistent formats, great, leading talent, sort of the basics that have been in the entertainment business for a hundred years plus. So bringing that maturity to these platforms in a way where you're telling the story that the younger generation sort of wants to hear and is used to…that stuff goes without saying.”